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The Next Big Tech Wave

Finally - we may have some visibility into how the next big wave of technology will shape up.

In the last decade, 2000-2010 - the smartphone and mobile internet wave - was initiated. 2011-2020 has mostly been just about riding that to maturity.

The last decade also saw all prescient techies and VCs starting to clamour to find the next big tech wave - speculating, tinkering and betting on what will lead to the next explosion in value (and valuations).

Everything so far - has looked bleak. There were mainly 3 options, from a layman’s perspective (excuse if I miss some niche development that only experts in the field would know of) -

/1 AI / AGI -

/2 VR / Metaverse -

/3 Crypto / Web3 -

You could actually argue that while speculators were attracted to Web3 to get rich quick, a lot of builders were also attracted to it because Web2 seemed so dystopian. BigTech has won everything and most startup funding dollars are going to BigTech too (cloud, performance marketing and inflated talent costs). Web3 still felt full of hope, the chance to build everything anew and from scratch.

None of them in isolation turned out to become the next big technology wave that everyone’s been waiting for.

This fact - combined with the end of the zero interest rate regime across the world - has led to doom and gloom and even FAANG techies (coddled over a decade, riding the beta of the last tech wave by being in the right place and the right time) are now seeing a dystopian future full of layoffs and the reality of free markets crashing down on them.

However - it feels like we’re on the cusp of something big.

/1 AI / AGI -

/2 VR / Metaverse -

/3 Crypto / Web3 -

What if the next big wave is not any of these 3, but the confluence of all of these 3.

They say it’s more opportunistic and higher ROI to be in the top 10% of 2-3 fields and intersect them as opposed to being in the top 1% of any new field.

They also say that one should be fearful when everyone is greedy, and greedy when everyone is fearful.

As a combo - we’re leaning more towards fear in Crypto, feeling neutral for the Metaverse, and just starting to get greedy in AI.

For anyone just starting out in Tech or trying to do something new in Tech, maybe now truly is the best time to build, before the speculators ruin everything again. For most people - not just in one of these (as all of them are extremely deep fields with real genius needing a decade to get to), but at the intersection of all of these.

The beginning of a long cold winter for speculators, and the beginning of a new wave opening up multiple opportunities for consumer facing disruption for builders.

PS: Maybe this post is just triggered by the early novelty of the breakthrough with ChatGPT and multiple other Generative AI projects, and will age badly. Only time will tell.

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